How much more expensive will diesel become due to ETS2?
Adopted 2026-06-14 · ≈ 2 min read · 
edited by Dirk Baaijen
From 2028 ETS2 prices road-transport fuel upstream at suppliers, who pass the cost on at the pump. The exact rise per litre is not fixed and depends on the market price per tonne of CO2.
Short answer: The exact increase per litre of diesel is not fixed. From 2028 ETS2 prices the CO2 in road-transport fuel; fuel suppliers pass that cost on at the pump, so diesel becomes more expensive as the CO2 price rises.
How ETS2 affects the diesel price
ETS2 was established by Directive (EU) 2023/959 as a separate emissions trading system for road-transport and buildings fuels, alongside the existing EU ETS. Unlike a levy charged at the pump, ETS2 applies upstream: it is not the individual haulier but the fuel supplier who must surrender emission allowances for the CO2 released when the supplied fuel is burned. Those costs then flow through into the pump price of diesel.
How much more expensive diesel becomes is therefore not a fixed amount. It depends on the market price per tonne of CO2 at the moment the supplier has to buy allowances. The higher that price, the larger the effect on the price per litre.
When and how heavy
The start of ETS2 has been postponed to 2028 (originally 2027). Monitoring and reporting by fuel suppliers are, however, already running, so the system can be operational from the start date. From the start the cap falls by 5.15% per year, structurally tightening the available volume of allowances over time and putting upward pressure on the price in the longer run.
To soften sharp price spikes in the early years there is a price-stabilisation mechanism: if the CO2 price rises above roughly 45 euro per tonne, extra allowances are released onto the market. This dampens shocks but does not set a hard long-term ceiling on the price. The broader aim of ETS2 is a 42% emissions reduction by 2030 compared with 2005.
What this means for your fleet
For transport and logistics companies the practical message is that, from 2028, fuel costs gain a new, climate-driven component that increases over time. Quoting an exact surcharge would be speculation; it is wiser to model scenarios based on your annual diesel consumption and the expected CO2 price, and to factor fuel efficiency and alternatives into your planning.
Read the main file: ETS2 and carbon pricing in road transport. Or take the Transport & Logistics scan.
Sources
- https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2023/959/oj
Directive (EU) 2023/959; ETS2 for road-transport fuel, starts 2028.
Read next
When does ETS2 actually start?
ETS2 has been postponed to 2028 (originally 2027). Monitoring and reporting are already running. The system prices road-transport and building fuels upstream at the fuel supplier.
ETS2: carbon pricing is coming to road transport fuel
ETS2 brings carbon pricing to fuels for road transport and buildings — fuel suppliers must surrender allowances. It starts in 2028 (delayed from 2027), with monitoring already under way. This feeds through into the diesel price, and therefore into freight rates.
ETS2: what must I arrange in my contracts?
ETS2 prices road-transport fuel upstream at suppliers; costs feed into the pump price. In contracts, arrange a pass-through/indexation clause, fuel-consumption data sharing and renegotiation points ahead of the 2028 start.